User:Raisins/Guessing Right

Guessing

There are 3 monsters left.

Unfortunately in this case the monster count doesn't help us solve the stage for sure. We have to guess.

What are the odds?

Some cells have a 50-50 chance to be monsters like the pair next to these cells.

Others like the trio near this bottom , have a 33% chance.

67% of the time it works every time

33% chance of pain sounds better, so what happens if we guessed this cell?

If the cell is empty, it looks similar to the start. But we can make progress by using the monster count.

The top says one monster in the top three cells. The middle says one monster in the middle three cells. There's only one cell left for the last monster!

Ok great, take what we learned and solve the rest of the puzzle, and we only risked 33%.

...but we're forgettting something. What if it was a monster?

...

...not good.

Third time's the charm

That last 50-50 is the key to this puzzle. The way it's stuck in a dead end at the top means that solving it from outside clues is impossible if this cell here is not a monster. So if our first guess is not in that top 50-50, we get a 40% chance to have to guess it anyway!

So the correct play was one of these two cells. They are the only guesses that always solve the whole stage.